Rigby, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXUS65 KPIH 182006
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
206 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain with accumulating high mountain snow continues.

- Windy conditions, especially across the eastern Magic Valley,
  Raft River region, and lower Snake Plain.

- Frost/freeze possible tonight/Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

As expected, it`s wet, windy, and chilly out there today. Wind
Advisory will continue as we`ve seen plenty of wind gusts of 45 to
55 mph in parts of the eastern Magic Valley and even a few gusts
into High Wind Warning territory up on some ridge tops. The wind
will back off overnight, but still expect some gusts around 25 to 30
mph around the Burley area into Monday and gusts of 25 to 30 mph
throughout much of Eastern Idaho on Monday afternoon. The Frost
Advisory will also remain in effect for tonight as temperatures are
still forecast to drop to 36 degrees or lower throughout almost all
of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. The latest HREF
probabilities shows a 70 to nearly 100 percent chance of
temperatures dropping to at least 36 degrees in these areas, so this
is a pretty high confidence Frost Advisory issuance for temperatures
chilly enough to impact outdoor vegetation left uncovered.

We`re getting plenty of rain and mountain snow today as this upper
level trough continues to work its way through Eastern Idaho. This
will continue through the afternoon, evening, and even overnight
periods with the bulk of the moisture falling in areas along and
east of I-15, though we will see some snow tonight in the Central
Mountains, too. Look for up to a half inch of snow below pass level
and closer to 1 to 3 inches on the mountain tops.

CAMs show agreement on a convergence band of moisture setting up
between Idaho Falls and American Falls late tonight into early
Monday morning. As far as additional QPF and snowfall go, we`re
expecting most of the precipitation to fall east of Craters of the
Moon with another quarter inch to three tenths of an inch of QPF for
Pocatello, Blackfoot, Idaho Falls, and Rexburg thanks to said
convergence band. If temperatures were just a couple of degrees
colder, we`d be looking at snowfall in the Snake River Plain. That
said, if precipitation can make it a bit farther south towards the
Cold Water area, it would not be too surprising to see a little
snow. In the Eastern Highlands, accumulating snow is expected above
pass level for the most part, but up to an inch is possible around
Driggs, Victor, and Pine Creek Pass with up to 2 inches on
Emigration Summit. Expect a little break in the precipitation Monday
evening, but it won`t last too long, and highs on Monday will be in
the 50s to near 60 degrees across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

Weakly zonal flow is in place Tuesday with a fast moving shortwave
prompting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Flow
begins to buckle off the Pacific coast into a weak trough Wednesday,
shuttling another shortwave across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday for additional precipitation chances. There appears to be
general agreement among the ensemble systems regarding deepening a
new trough off the Pacific coast by the weekend, though there are
differences in the ensemble clusters on how this should occur. Model
means support another chance of precipitation Saturday with passage
of another weak feature. Overall the trend should be toward warming,
with temperatures returning to normal by midweek, and then warming
above normal by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

Upper low working through the region today continues to provide a
cold and wet day for East Idaho terminals. Trough axis slowly
working east with clearing along/west of a line from SUN to BYI.
CIGS improve to VFR for SUN and BYI but winds remain quite strong
for BYI with gusts approaching or exceeding 40kts into early
evening, gradually decreasing to 25-30kts after 06Z. Further east,
widespread SHRA and IFR/LIFR CIGS remain in place. Could see some
improvement to MVFR through the day, but presence of SHRA drops
those CIGS back down. If clearing pushes far enough east today, PIH
could see more improvement for CIGS, but it would come at a cost
with increased winds, which should already peak with gusts
around/just over 30kts this afternoon. Wrap around precipitation
looks to impact PIH overnight for continuation of IFR or even LIFR
CIGS with persistent SHRA roughly 06Z to roughly 14Z. Will keep VCSH
at IDA and DIJ through this time. Further, outside of any SHRA at
DIJ, low stratus looks like a strong potential overnight with
potential continuance of LIFR CIGS.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-054>057.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH